Gold Under Pressure from a Stronger US Dollar

Despite ongoing tariff threats from President Trump, gold appears to be in a brief consolidation, with recent fluctuations influenced by a stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields exerting short-term pressure. However, risk-averse investors continue shifting into safe-haven assets, setting the stage for a potential breakout. With geopolitical tensions escalating and the Federal Reserve reconsidering interest rate cuts, gold remains well-positioned for a move higher in the coming weeks.  

These cautious investors might be onto something. The Federal Reserve is re-evaluating its rate-cut strategy as inflation data shows signs of acceleration. The cost of living in developed countries is once again a pressing issue, and if Trump's tariff policies aim to repatriate manufacturing jobs, it's likely to drive up prices for imported goods and disrupt domestic supply chains. While we're not in hyperinflation territory yet, the steady rise in costs is impacting families still feeling the effects of previous rate hikes and rising expenses.  

Geopolitical tensions are adding to market uncertainty. Trump’s latest round of 25% tariffs on EU imports has escalated trade disputes, with the European Commission preparing retaliatory measures. Meanwhile, his decision to downplay Ukraine’s NATO bid while engaging in direct negotiations with Moscow has sent further ripples through global markets. These developments contribute to an increasingly fragile economic outlook, reinforcing the long-term case for gold.  

Amidst all the economic turmoil, gold continues to serve as a strong hedge against uncertainty.  

Market Snapshot  

• Gold – $US2875 
• Silver – $US31.22
• US500 – $US5871
• ASX200 – $AUD8202
• AUD/USD – 0.6236

 Market Indicators to Watch

• U.S. Jobs Report – Releases Friday, 12:30 am AEST, providing a key measure of labor market strength.  
• U.S. Unemployment Rate – Also Friday, 12:30 am AEST, a crucial gauge of economic stability.  
• U.S. CPI (Inflation Data) – Scheduled for next Wednesday, 12:30 am AEST, offering insight into price pressures.  
• RBA Rate Statement – Next update Tuesday, 2:30 pm AEST, shaping expectations for monetary policy.  
• AUD Retail Sales Data – Expected Thursday, 11:30 am AEST, reflecting consumer spending trends.  

Stay tuned for more updates as these economic events unfold.  

Gold Futures Technical Analysis  

As of February 28, 2025, the technical indicators for Gold Futures suggest a STRONG BUY on both monthly and weekly analyses.  

Technical Indicators - Monthly Projections  

Summary for Monthly Forecast: Strong Buy  

Gold daily chart, with 200MDA

Silver daily chart, with 200MDA

US500, with 200MDA

ASX200, with 200MDA