Weekly Market Analysis and Gold Price Forecast
Jaggards Weekly Market Analysis and Gold Price Forecast
10 March 2023
As at, 12:00 pm
Gold Spot Price - AU$2779.75
Silver Spot Price - AU$30.47
Platinum Spot Price - AU$1437.27
News around consumer credit, factory orders, job openings and jobless claims (coming today) have strengthened the US economy and the US dollar over the past week.
Consumer credit, while it completely missed the median forecast of $22B (actual 14.8B) did show that US citizens are ‘tightening the belt’ and not choosing the credit card where possible.
Factory orders also missed forecasts, continuing positive upwards trends from the previous period.
But the big news for the week was from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. During his address, he stated, “If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes.” He is awaiting data from a few additional sources before deciding on additional tightening at their next meeting on March 21st.
Michael Gapen, Chief US Economist at Bank of America stated, “I think 50 [basis point] will be on the table in March, but it hard for me to move to a call for 50 right now.”
With much of America (and Australia) now starting to feel the effects of continued rate hikes, surely any disposable income is now gone. Next on the table is personal savings, currently at an average of 4.7%. Long-term averages for personal savings sit at 8.84% suggesting we’re well under a safe threshold or level of comfort for most citizens in the US.
Pressure is mounting. The hint of additional tightening from Powell and Gapen sent the US500 (and ASX200) on a downward pitch. We’ll discuss Gold and how it has reacted below.
Gold Technical Analysis
Moving through this week, we’re still NEUTRAL – however, looking towards a monthly technical position we’re looking much more positive.
Moving averages this week suggest a BUY signal, with technical indicators still positioned NEUTRAL.
Again, we’ve included a daily chart movement for Gold, with 200MDA and RSI.
Yesterday’s strong upwards price movement lifted the RSI back into more optimistic territory, while also giving the overall price position a healthy buffer against the 200MDA.
And if you missed it, the US500 did just dip under its 200MDA. For perspective, we’ve also included a chart showing what has occurred historically whenever the US500 dips below its 200MDA.
We’ll catch you next week for another weekly Jaggards forecast.
DISCLAIMER
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results. This news and any links provided are for general information only and should not be taken as constituting professional advice from Jaggards.
Jaggards is not a financial adviser. We recommend you seek independent financial advice before making any financial decisions based on the information contained in this article.